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Egypt, fearing major disruptions to its access to the Niles waters, originally intended to prevent even the start of the GERDs construction. Moreover, with GERD, Ethiopia opts for a hydropower expansion strategy on the Blue Nile, and not an irrigation strategy. Egyptian players abroad: Mostafa Mohamed's Nantes defeated at PSG, Trezeguet.. Italy Serie A results & fixtures (25th matchday), Egypts Prosecution investigates Hoggpool, Six European nations express concern over growing violence in Palestinian territories, Egyptian Premier League fixtures (21st matchday), US official says Biden expected to tighten rules on US investment in China. It can help the riparian states outline principles, rights, and obligations for cooperative management of the resources of the Nile. In any event, the dispute remains. Egypt, which lies 1,600 miles downstream of the Dam, believes its operation will reduce the amount of fresh water available to it from the Nile. 2011. how much does the reservoir contain? Cairo . Feb 11th 2021 DAMS HAVE several uses. According to Baradei, hydropower dams create immense turbulence in the water, where chemical reactions such as dissolved oxygen can destroy fauna and flora. The Washington Quarterly, 37(2), 25-37. The official narrative is that Ethiopia can uproot poverty and bring about a definitive end to social and economic underdevelopment by means of the construction of a series of mega-dams combined with the development of the national energy infrastructure. Four of these would potentially be located on the main river and one would eventually evolve into the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Workers move iron girders from a crane at the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), near Guba, Ethiopia, on Dec. 26, 2019. The Chinese then took over the funding amidst heightened international concern regarding the social, technical, and environmental repercussions of the Ethiopian dams. One question that keeps coming up is: Will Ethiopia be willing to release enough water from the reservoir to help mitigate a drought downstream? In terms of the old or anachronistic law, two of the Nile Water Treaties do not bind Ethiopia meanwhile the third does not actually preclude the construction of a dam. At 6,000 MW, the dam will be the largest hydroelectric power plant in Africa when completed at 2017(IPoE, 2013). Subsequent impact studies were performed by the European Investment Bank and the African Development Bank, and in the light of the results, these banks cancelled their funding for Gibe III. Turning then to Ethiopia. The Nile waters have historically been governed by the Nile Waters Treaties. These colonial-era agreements comprise (i) the 1902 Anglo-Ethiopian Treaty (with the UK representing modern-day Sudan); (ii) the 1929 Anglo-Egyptian Treaty (with the UK representing modern-day Kenya and Uganda) and (iii) the 1959 Egypt-Sudan Treaty (with the UK now absent as a result of decolonisation). Maguid, M.A. Since plans for Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) were first announced in 2011, Cairo has viewed the project as a serious threat to the country's water supply. Salman, S.M.A. However, the DoP lacks these key traits, and these omissions suggest that it may simply be a non-binding declaration designed to ease political tensions and to illuminate a way forward. These run from rising rivalry between Egypt and Ethiopia to a festering border war between Ethiopia and neighboring Sudan. l Coordinates 111255N 3505 . The countrys 2003 development plan introduced many more, and the Ethiopian government launched an ambitious PR campaign to encourage donor nations and international funding agencies to support these projects financially and ideologically as the highway to Ethiopian development and prosperity. The $4 billion hydroelectric dam . Indeed, the ICJ confirmed in Gabikovo-Nagymaros Project that all riparian states have a basic right to an equitable and reasonable sharing of the resources of the watercourse. Moreover, these principles were pulled through into the DoP agreed by both Egypt and Ethiopia. The Watercourses Convention aims to regulate the uses, as well as the conservation, of all transboundary waters above and below the surface. It is clearly a philosophy that looks beyond the electricity and freshwater needs of local communities to a geo-strategic restructuring of the Horn of Africa. The instrument was a success in terms of cooling tensions between the states which seemed increasingly likely to come to blows. The Grand Renaissance Dam and prospects for cooperation on the Eastern Nile. On the contrary, GERD has a positive impact in terms of reducing flood and silting and boost water conservation as well as generate energy for the region. Therefore, all the water is eventually released downstream with the effect that there is no net loss of water to downstream states. The Chinese donors who have agreed to fund it have performed no independent social or environmental impact reviews. (2014). Cairo - U.S. Special Envoy to the Horn of Africa Ambassador Mike Hammer met with senior Egyptian government officials on July 25 to advance a diplomatic resolution on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) that supports the water needs, economy, and livelihood of all Egyptians, Sudanese, and Ethiopians. Nile Basins GERD dispute creates risks for Egypt, Sudan, and beyond. The Tripartite National Council (TNC) was then established, consisting of members from each of the three countries with the aim of carrying through the IPoE's recommendations (Attia & Saleh, 2021). (2017). What could have been strictly technical negotiations have turned into a political deadlock. Improved relations among Egyptians, Ethiopians, and Sudanese can go a long way in enhancing the ability of their leaders to negotiate and adopt agreements that reflect the interests of citizens, especially regarding economic development and poverty alleviation. Indeed, Egypt has called the filling of the dam an existential threat, as it fears the dam will negatively impact the countrys water supplies. The drying up of this in Central Asia has been called the worlds worst environmental catastrophe. Sign up for news on environment, conflict and cooperation. The dispute has prompted numerous international interventions, including by Gulf Arab states, which have issued political statements and led mediation efforts. Still, Egypt may be playing with fire if it were to press the legal significance of the DoP. The Kenyan Lake is heavily dependent on the fresh water and vital nutrients supplied by the rivers annual floods, making it a paradise for fisheries. Governing the Nile River Basin: The Search for a New Legal Regime. Trilateral talks between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan to finalise an agreement on a cooperation framework for the GERD have been mediated by the African Union, World Bank and United States. Despite several tripartite meetings between November 2013 and January 2014, no agreement was reached on the implementation of the IPoE recommendations and controversies were evolving around the constitution of a trilateral committee. The current global energy crisis may help in this regard in the sense that Egyptians may find the allure of discounted hydroelectric energy stronger than ever before. The filling time is estimated to take about 10 years, during which the Blue Nile water flows would be reduced. After announcing the dam's construction, and with a view to the increasing tensions, the Ethiopian government invited both Egypt and Sudan to form an International Panel of Experts (IPoE) to solicit understanding of the benefits, costs and impacts of the GERD. Following the fall of Mengistu Haile-Mariams regime in Ethiopia in 1991, Ethiopia experienced a remarkable rise in the construction of dams and hydroelectric power stations. Ethiopia says it will take a further four to six years to fill up the reservoir to its maximum flood season capacity of 74bcm. It could be a treaty or merely a political declaration as the name implies. Both Egypt and Ethiopia could make arguments in support of their positions. The change of government in Egypt led to a more conciliatory approach (Von Lossow & Roll, 2015). Stratfor Worldview. Given the advancement of the dam construction - the GERD being, as of March 2015, 40% complete, according to Ethiopia - Egypt had good reason to reconsider its position (RANE, 2015). The announcement on Friday comes a day after Ethiopia said it had launched power production from the second turbine at the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Whittington, D. et al. In: Yihdego, Z. et al. This is on the basis of the principles of State succession as outlined in the Vienna Convention on the Succession of States (VCSS). Ethiopia should get its fair share of water that originates in Ethiopia. Von Lossow, T. & Roll, S. (2015). But with a generation capacity of 6.45GW, the Ethiopian government quoted the project as vital to the country's economic growth. Ethiopia has never 'consumed' significant shares of the Nile's water so far, as its previous political and economic fragility in combination with a lack of external financial support, due to persistent Egyptian opposition to projects upstream, prevented it from implementing large-scale projects. In March 2015, a 'Declaration of Principles' was signed by the leaders of Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia, setting the foundations for an initial cooperation (Salman, 2017). In general, the Ethiopian development philosophy rests on two pillars: mega-dams and mega-agricultural projects. Ethiopia has two major plans for these rivers, which both flow into Somalia, in the form of the Wabe Shebelle and the Genale Dawa power plants. Since 2015, technical reports on the potential impacts of the dam have failed to reach a consensus within the TNC (Maguid, 2017). Both citizens and governments should be made part of the solution to the water-related conflicts that now threaten peace and security in the Nile Basin. (2012). While such dams also come with long-term benefits to local populations, the chief beneficiary will always be the state, which reaps profits from the sale of surplus electricity. Initially opposed to the GERD, Sudan later expressed support for its construction in 2013, claiming that it would serve the interests of all three nations (Maguid, 2017). The writer is a professor of political science at the UAEs Zayed and Cairo universities, *A version of this article appears in print in the 9 July, 2020 edition ofAl-Ahram Weekly, Spain La Liga results & fixtures (24th matchday). Although Egypt has persistently argued that the 1959 agreement between Egypt and Sudan is the legal framework for the allocation of the waters of the Nile, Ethiopia and other upstream riparian states reject that argument. Indeed, Egypt has called the filling of the dam an. Ethiopia is pinning its hopes of economic development and power generation on the dam. khadsyy Plus. - Ethiopia's massive. Ethiopia seems to have the legal upper hand in this dispute. On the surface, the 558 ft tall dam Africa's biggest hydropower project belies Ethiopia's financial muscle. It has also expressed concerns about the potential impact the initial filling of the dam will have on areas downstream. The former was initially funded by the World Bank and the European Investment Bank, but these later withdrew for legal and other reasons. It will also give Ethiopia more control . On Feb. 26, Ethiopia temporarily suspended its . The Eastern Nile Basin comprises Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia. Yet, Ethiopia is fully aware of Somalias economic dependence on the rivers originating from Ethiopias highlands. Owned and operated by the Ethiopian Electric Power company, the 145-m-tall roller-compacted concrete gravity dam . But the Ethiopian elites show little interest in addressing such concerns, bent as they are on a nationalist revivalist project that claims an Ethiopian exceptionalism that places Addis Ababa above international law as it pursues a water-management strategy that has less to do with its development aims than with its ambitions to weaponise water in a bid for regional hegemony. Egypts Nile Water Policy under Sisi: Security Interests Promote Rapprochement with Ethiopia. Why the Nile could see a 'water war'. By Ambassador Gurjit Singh*. Water scarcity is a growing problem. Egypts original goal was to have the project purely and simply cancelled. 2. While the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is taking shape on . The failure of the latest talks over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has intensified tensions between Ethiopia and downstream states Egypt and Sudan. If it is allowed to reach dangerous levels, water scarcity has the potential to trigger conflicts. Another argument Egypt might adduce concerns the DoP. 17th round of GERD tripartite talks hits wall in Cairo. This is an intergovernmental partnership to provide a forum for consultation and coordination for the sustainable management and development of shared water. The three countries have agreed that when the flow of Nile water to the dam falls below 35-40 b.c.m. Elliot Winter is a lecturer (assistant professor) in international law at Newcastle University in the United Kingdom. It's free to sign up and bid on jobs. This crisis has raised great concerns among large sectors of the Egyptian society, especially in light of recalling such statements as "water war," "water militarization," "military management of the GERD crisis," "water terrorism," and "Ethiopian hydro-hegemony over the Nile Basin" [ 1, 2 ]. It signifies that Egypts de facto veto power on major upstream dams has been broken, and it clearly demonstrates the political will of Ethiopia to develop its water infrastructure even in the absence of a comprehensive basin agreement. In that light, Egypt should minimize trips to Washington, D.C., New York, and Brussels, and instead use its diplomatic resources to improve its relations with the other riparian states. Ethiopia, with a population of more than 115 million people and Projected to be 230 million by 2050. However, another trend stresses the need to approach the question from a broader and more holistic perspective. IDS (2013). Sudan, caught between the competing interests of both Egypt and Ethiopia, has been changing its stance on the issue. Rendering of GERDEthiopia is building one of the largest dams in the world, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), on the River Nile near the Sudan border. DISADVANTAGES OF ASWAN DAM the agriculture output of Egypt. Ethiopian Yearbook of International Law 2017. Ethiopia argues that developing this resource is crucial to its economic development, and to overcoming poverty and famine, that have plagued the country in the past. The colonial powers have departed and so to continue to enforce treaties agreed based around their interests would be irrational. Finally, Ethiopia could make a strong case that the operation of the Dam is in alignment with the core principles of international water law, namely equitable utilisation and no significant harm. These are found in Articles 5 and 7 of the Water Courses Convention respectively and, despite the scepticism outlined above, arguably form part of customary international law. At the same. The current filling which is ongoing since early July 2021 has presented no issues as well. The decisions that this group renders must be binding on all riparian states. Such a meaningful resource-sharing agreement should not only resolve the conflict over water-use rights among the riparian states, but it should help define concepts such as equitable and reasonable use and significant harm, which have been used by the downstream states in their criticisms of the GERD. The establishment of the Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile, up 145 and a storage capacity of 74 . As mentioned above, Ethiopias dam-construction strategy is intimately linked with large-scale foreign investment in the agrarian sector and specifically in areas near the artificial reservoirs created by the dams. The GERD and the Revival of the Egyptian-Sudanese Dispute over the Nile Waters. Under the Ethiopian constitution, the state is the proprietor of the countrys land and natural resources, which gives the government significant control over the allocation and use of land. The other riparian states can then be brought in, either through the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) or some other regional framework, to secure an agreement that is binding on all the states. Sudan and Egypt, which rely most heavily on the . Ultimately, all the water is allowed to pass downstream such that there is no net loss of flow (with the exception of water lost to evaporation). An optimistic trend among todays African commentators focuses primarily on economic growth rates and pays little attention to human tolls, questions of transparency and accountability, and the sustainability of growth. In an effort to forestall potential water conflicts such as the one brewing around the Dam, an increasing number of bilateral and multilateral water agreements have been concluded in recent decades. It states in Principle III that the parties shall take all appropriate measures to prevent the causing of significant harm. "Today as you see behind me . Hence, the customary law argument might be too ambitious. Indeed, Principle II notes that the purpose of the [Dam] is for power generation and regional integration through generation of sustainable and reliable clean energy supply. This is crucial given that hydroelectricity generation simply involves holding water back behind a dam for a period of time, and then releasing it again in a managed manner so that the electric turbines can spin consistently. Second, the upstream riparian states must recognize and accept Egypts near total dependence on the waters of the Nile River. Thus, it is only through cooperation that Egypt, Ethiopia, Sudan, and the other riparians can peacefully resolve conflicts over the Nile and achieve the type of water use that will contribute significantly to regional economic and human development. The Ethiopian government is spending $4.7 billion to construct the 1,780-meter dam across the Blue Nile. Egypt had asked the UNSC to push the three countries to adhere to their obligations in accordance with the rules of international law in order to reach a fair and balanced solution to the issue of the GERD. Egypts repeated references to the rules of international law is part of an effort to maintain its so-called natural and historical rights that were established and reaffirmed by the 1929 Anglo-Egyptian Treaty and 1959 Agreement between Egypt and Sudan, respectivelytreaties many of the other involved parties reject as anachronistic and untenable. Similarly, both the final agreement between the riparian states for the allocation of the water and resources of the Nile should include a dispute resolution mechanism. per year, that would constitute a drought, to push the three countries to adhere to their obligations in accordance with the rules of international law in order to reach a fair and balanced solution to the issue of the GERD, 1929 Anglo-Egyptian Treaty and 1959 Agreement. Consequently, under the principle of pacta tertiis nec nocent nec prosunt, it could demonstrate that those treaties cannot bind it as it was a third party and did not give its consent. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam will have negative impacts not only on Egypt but also on poor communities in Ethiopia as well as on its Nile Basin neighbours. Still, if the exception was somehow activated, it would mean that Egypt remains entitled to 66% of the Nile River waters and that this figure should be used as the baseline for any future negotiations. Third, Egypt should abandon continued references to its so-called natural historical rights (i.e., the water rights granted Egypt by the 1929 Anglo-Egyptian Treaty and the 1959 Agreement between Egypt and Sudan).